Inštitut za strateške rešitve
Inštitut za strateške rešitve je začel izdajati The Adriatic Journal, ki ponuja novice iz regije
14. novembra 2018 / 11:56
The Adriatic Journal izhaja v angleškem jeziku v dveh različnih formatih: na spletu in v obliki mesečnega novičnika (newslettra). The Adriatic Journal prinaša novice, analize in drugo zanimivo branje iz Slovenije in regije Zahodnega Balkana, povezane z geopolitiko, gospodarstvom in življenjskim slogom, namenjen pa je vsem, ki imajo kakršen koli aktiven interes za spremljanje dogajanja v regiji.

1. januarja 2019 bo izšla publikacija The Adriatic Journal: Strategic Foresight 2019, ki bo ponudila analitično oceno dogajanja v državah Zahodnega Balkana v letu 2018, ob tem pa še intervjuje, poglobljene članke in zanimive vsebine, povezane z umetnostjo, kulinariko in življenjskim slogom.
 
ZNAČKE /
People Need to Start Feeling the Economic Growth
5. januarja 2015 / 13:08

Note: This is an extract from the ISR publication Strategic Foresight 2015: South East Europe available here

 

There is economic growth in figures but there are rising political and social tensions. If the local business and the population overall don’t start feeling the impact of the economic growth that is showing on paper, there will be social unrests, which will hamper the economic growth.

As we enter 2015, it is very difficult to establish whether the people in South-Eastern Europe should be optimistic or scared of the coming year. While there is a light feel of better times to come, that sensation is primarily based on statistical numbers, which show that growth is picking up again. However, unemployment, average income and poverty rates remain at worrying levels. The consequence is low public trust, which could lead to dissatisfaction and increasing tensions leading to political instability.

At the beginning of 2014, we forecasted economic growth in the region. Apart from some countries, where the flooding caused damages to the businesses and population, in 2014 most of the countries will experience GDP growth even higher than forecasted at the beginning of the year. Economic growth presents a good starting point for the region to pick up again in 2015. However, problems remain at the social level. We see political uncertainties, caused by social dissatisfaction, as the main risk for the region in 2015. Unemployment levels are high in most of the countries. People that do have jobs, earn very little. Citizens are disillusioned by the low standards of living. Paradoxically, people are becoming cynical by reports of corruption cases, which they see in the news, but are a result of the fight against corruption that the countries are more determined to deal with. All this amounts to lower level of public trust in politicians and state institutions, as well as consumer trust. It could be a ticking bomb for social unrest – which some countries have experienced already in 2014.

On the other hand, politicians need to do more for long-term prosperity in the region. For that, people need to start earning more and there need to be more opportunities for entrepreneurs and investors. The only perspective for SEE is to be catching up with the Western World and getting closer to average EU development. We see this as the main challenge for SEE in 2015. Economic growth is a solid start, but it needs to manifest itself in lowering unemployment first and then in increasing consumer and public trust. Unfortunately, the economic growth we have seen in 2014 has not reached that stage yet.

Part of the reason is low economic growth. Developing countries of SEE need higher GDP growth in order to be catching up with the West. States are aware of the problems and are trying to increase growth by attracting foreign investment. As most countries will be experiencing growth for the second consecutive year, these are becoming more interesting for foreign investors. The interest is further accelerated by incentives offered to foreign investors in terms of tax reliefs and easements of doing business. However, problems remain on the structural level, which businesses consider before investing. Also, the discontent is still growing and uncertainties are rather high. Investments are risky.

The year 2015 will be a year when business and politics will matter. Economic uncertainties will be at lower levels due to GDP growth, however high unemployment and low trust will cause social and political uncertainties to rise. Hence, investment environments will remain in the levels of moderately stable or moderately uncertain. For 2015 do not expect significant improvements or deteriorations, however, the year will show the path on which these countries will go towards 2020.

Let 2015 be good for business!

Tine Kračun,

Director of Institute for Strategic Solutions

 

 

ZNAČKE / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
Škotska jutri
17. septembra 2014 / 10:19

Referendumi o neodvisnosti pri Slovencih vedno naletijo na mehko točko. Prav je tako.

Niti razblinjene sanje o razviti in pravični državi nam ne smejo vzeti odnosa do vrhunca zgodovine slovenskega naroda. In nekateri narodi v Evropi sanj o neodvisnosti še niso dosegli. Jutri o svojih sanjah odločajo Škoti. Toda ali je njihova upravičenost vsaj malo podobna slovenski? Ni. Škoti živijo v demokratični in liberalni uniji, v kateri imajo kot narod vse želene pravice. Živijo v verjetno socialno najbolj delujoči in podjetništvu najbolj naklonjeni državi.  Nadaljuj z branjem …

ZNAČKE / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
Evropske volitve v Sloveniji: Cikličnost se bo iz slovenske prenesla v evropsko politično sfero
20. maja 2014 / 13:28

Od 22. do 25. maja bodo v državah članicah Evropske unije (EU) potekale že osme evropske volitve. Za Slovenijo, ki se je Uniji pridružila pred desetimi leti, bodo to že tretje volitve, Slovenci pa bomo na volitvah 25. maja izbrali svojih osem evropskih poslancev. Tako na volitvah leta 2004 kot na volitvah leta 2009 je bila volilna udeležba v Sloveniji nizka in ni pričakovati, da bo letos bistveno višja. Po javnomnenjskih raziskav sodeč se namerava 25. maja na volišča odpraviti dobra četrtina volilnih upravičencev, a na ISR pričakujemo, da bo dejanska volilna udeležba, zaradi politične krize, ki trenutno pretresa Slovenijo, padca zaupanja v slovenske politike in naraščajočega nezadovoljstva med slovenskimi državljani še nižja. Nadaljuj z branjem …

ZNAČKE / / / / / / / / /
Milanović zahteva takojšno ureditev položaja Ine
8. aprila 2014 / 8:28

Predsednik vlade Zoran Milanović ni zadovoljen s potekom pogajanj med njegovo vlado in madžarskim MOL. Premier ocenjuje, da je potrebno položaj Ine urediti čim prej, da bo ta lahko funkcionirala v interesu Hrvaške. Gre za pomemben preobrat v pogajanjih, ki so do sedaj temeljila na izkazovanju moči obeh strani preko medijev. V ospredje naj bi sedaj prišel položaj Ine, vlada pa naj bi zavzela stališče, da je zdravje podjetja in njeno uspešno delovanje ključnega pomena, kdo z njo upravlja pa postranskega. Pogajanja so se sicer znašla na mrtvi točki že pred časom. Razlog za to naj bi tičal v čakanju Hrvaške na pravnomočno obsodbo Hernadnija.

ZNAČKE / / / / / /
V čem se delo svetovalnega think-tanka razlikuje od novinarstva?
4. marca 2014 / 12:14

Na našem inštitutu smo pogosto soočeni z vprašanjem, v čem se naše delo razlikuje od dela novinarjev. Res je, da tako zaposleni na Inštitutu za strateške rešitve, ki deluje kot svetovalni think-tank, kot tudi novinarji spremljamo politične in gospodarske novice iz različnih virov in jih skušamo umestiti v kontekst. Razlika med predvidevanjem, verjetno bi bila na tem mestu za lažjo predstavo kaj sploh pomeni predvidevanje lažje razumljiva raba angleške besede za predvidevanje intelligence, in novinarstvom pa je kljub temu velika.

Nadaljuj z branjem …

ZNAČKE / / / / / / / / / / / / /
Prek Sočija do globalne velesile
7. februarja 2014 / 9:16

Direktor ISR Tine Kračun na siol.net o Olimpijskih igrah v Sočiju, ki se pričenjajo danes. Na Inštitutu za strateške rešitve smo pripravili tudi obširno analizo o Rusiji in njeni ponovni želji po postati velesila.

 

ZNAČKE / / / / / / /