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Črna gora povabljena v Nato
2. decembra 2015 / 9:21

Na ministrskem sestanku v Bruslju je bila Črna gora uradno povabljena, da postane 29. članica zavezništva. Pričakuje se, da bodo države članice razpravljale ne samo o statusu Črne gore, temveč tudi o BiH, Makedoniji in Gruziji.

ZNAČKE /
Črna gora: Nov protest opozicije 5. decembra
13. novembra 2015 / 9:48

Po poročanju medijev naj bi DF nov protest organiziral 5. decembra, se pravi po tem, ko bo jasno ali bo Črna gora dobila povabilo v Nato. O tem naj bi se odločalo na ministrskem sestanku, ki bo v Bruslju potekal 1. in 2. decembra. S tem želi DF javnosti dokazati, da protesti niso usmerjeni proti članstvu države v Nato.

ZNAČKE / / /
Črna gora sprejela Resolucijo o Natu
17. septembra 2015 / 9:34

Poslanci so sprejeli Resolucijo o podpori integraciji v Nato. Od skupno 79 poslancev so trije glasovali proti predlogu, 50 jih je Resolucijo podprlo, 26 pa se jih je glasovanja vzdržalo.

ZNAČKE / / /
People Need to Start Feeling the Economic Growth
5. januarja 2015 / 13:08

Note: This is an extract from the ISR publication Strategic Foresight 2015: South East Europe available here

 

There is economic growth in figures but there are rising political and social tensions. If the local business and the population overall don’t start feeling the impact of the economic growth that is showing on paper, there will be social unrests, which will hamper the economic growth.

As we enter 2015, it is very difficult to establish whether the people in South-Eastern Europe should be optimistic or scared of the coming year. While there is a light feel of better times to come, that sensation is primarily based on statistical numbers, which show that growth is picking up again. However, unemployment, average income and poverty rates remain at worrying levels. The consequence is low public trust, which could lead to dissatisfaction and increasing tensions leading to political instability.

At the beginning of 2014, we forecasted economic growth in the region. Apart from some countries, where the flooding caused damages to the businesses and population, in 2014 most of the countries will experience GDP growth even higher than forecasted at the beginning of the year. Economic growth presents a good starting point for the region to pick up again in 2015. However, problems remain at the social level. We see political uncertainties, caused by social dissatisfaction, as the main risk for the region in 2015. Unemployment levels are high in most of the countries. People that do have jobs, earn very little. Citizens are disillusioned by the low standards of living. Paradoxically, people are becoming cynical by reports of corruption cases, which they see in the news, but are a result of the fight against corruption that the countries are more determined to deal with. All this amounts to lower level of public trust in politicians and state institutions, as well as consumer trust. It could be a ticking bomb for social unrest – which some countries have experienced already in 2014.

On the other hand, politicians need to do more for long-term prosperity in the region. For that, people need to start earning more and there need to be more opportunities for entrepreneurs and investors. The only perspective for SEE is to be catching up with the Western World and getting closer to average EU development. We see this as the main challenge for SEE in 2015. Economic growth is a solid start, but it needs to manifest itself in lowering unemployment first and then in increasing consumer and public trust. Unfortunately, the economic growth we have seen in 2014 has not reached that stage yet.

Part of the reason is low economic growth. Developing countries of SEE need higher GDP growth in order to be catching up with the West. States are aware of the problems and are trying to increase growth by attracting foreign investment. As most countries will be experiencing growth for the second consecutive year, these are becoming more interesting for foreign investors. The interest is further accelerated by incentives offered to foreign investors in terms of tax reliefs and easements of doing business. However, problems remain on the structural level, which businesses consider before investing. Also, the discontent is still growing and uncertainties are rather high. Investments are risky.

The year 2015 will be a year when business and politics will matter. Economic uncertainties will be at lower levels due to GDP growth, however high unemployment and low trust will cause social and political uncertainties to rise. Hence, investment environments will remain in the levels of moderately stable or moderately uncertain. For 2015 do not expect significant improvements or deteriorations, however, the year will show the path on which these countries will go towards 2020.

Let 2015 be good for business!

Tine Kračun,

Director of Institute for Strategic Solutions

 

 

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Črna gora članica Nata že 2016?
9. junija 2014 / 9:33

Vedno glasnejša so ugibanja o tem, ali bo Črna gora septembra na srečanju Nata dobila uradno povabilo zvezo. Po poročanju črnogorskih medijev sodeč, so države članice Nata temu naklonjene. Tudi prevladujoče mnenje črnogorskih politikov je, da je država pripravljena na vstop v Nato in da bo vabilo dobila. Po mnenju nekaterih tujih strokovnjakov naj bi Črna gora članica Alianse postala že leta 2016. Večjega nasprotovanja Rusije pri tem ne pričakujejo.

ZNAČKE /
Makedonija še ne bo članica Nata
28. maja 2014 / 11:34

Strokovnjaki v Makedoniji ocenjujejo, da država najverjetneje povabila v Nato na septembrskem vrhu zveze še ne bo dobila, Pravzaprav se pričakuje, da se pritisk tako na Makedonijo kot tudi na Grčijo, glede reševanja spora okrog imena, še povečal.

ZNAČKE / /
Črna gora resna kandidatka za članstvo v Natu
22. maja 2014 / 9:18

Generalni sekretar Nata se bo v Podgorici srečal s črnogorskim premierjem Milom Đukanovićem. Že včeraj je generalni sekretar poudaril, da je Nato zadovoljen z napredkom Črne gore, a da mora država še naprej delati na krepitvi vladavine prava. Dodal je, da je Črna gora resen kandidat za članstvo v Natu.

ZNAČKE /